Forecasting Analysis of the Open Unemployment Rate in Indonesia Using the ARIMA Approach

Authors

  • Fadhilah Siti Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University of North Sumatra
  • Abdillah Putri Asyifa Nur Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University of North Sumatra
  • Andini Fitri Ayu Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University of North Sumatra
  • Ajmal Mawaddah Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University of North Sumatra

Keywords:

ARIMA, Forecasting, Open Unemployment Rate, Time Series, Labor Market

Abstract

 This study aims to analyze and forecast the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series method. The data used comes from the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Indonesia, with the latest data showing a TPT of 4.68 percent in February 2026, down 0.08 percentage points compared to February 2025. The ARIMA model was selected based on its proven ability to capture temporal patterns in unemployment data and handle non-stationary time series through differencing techniques. The results indicate that the ARIMA model can provide accurate forecasting and serve as a useful tool for economic policymakers. The study also found that despite positive economic growth of 5.61% (yoy) in Q1 2026, structural challenges in the labor market persist, particularly regarding the dominance of informal employment and agricultural sector absorption. This research is expected to contribute to the development of effective employment policies in Indonesia.

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Published

2026-08-20

How to Cite

Siti , F., Putri Asyifa Nur , A., Fitri Ayu, A., & Mawaddah , A. (2026). Forecasting Analysis of the Open Unemployment Rate in Indonesia Using the ARIMA Approach. Journal of Accounting, 3(2), 79–88. Retrieved from https://jurnal.asrypersadaquality.com/index.php/accounting/article/view/1062

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026)

Section

Articles

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